法国人的浪漫主义害了欧洲。单一货币区可能是人类历史上仅次于“社会主义”的又一个动机伟大但是注定要失败而且后果严重的实验。
　　欧元的失败是显而易见的，但是更严重的问题是，欧洲各国不仅找不到对策，而且似乎没有认识到欧元正是所有问题的根源所在。

　　无论是德国还是法国，所提出的对策都没有触及根本。面对着西班牙希腊这些吃了上顿没下顿的穷亲戚，法国的对策是：不用怕，我借钱给你。但是法国人不明白“救急不救穷”的道理。搞欧洲债券开印钞机解决不了经济增长的问题，最终是大家一起饿死。
　　德国的对策则是：没钱，你就饿着吧。其实德国人比法国人看的透彻，知道这些穷亲戚是无底洞，一旦松口的话会把自己也搭进去。但是，德国这种事不关己高高挂起的态度并不明智。一方面德国是欧元的最大受益者，另一方面穷亲戚们对希特勒时代的回忆还挥之不去，难保穷亲戚们联手起来对德国旧恨新仇一起算。
　　未来欧元不管如何发展，德法都会是输家。要维持欧元，德法就必须大出血，并且要付出让欧元大幅度贬值的代价（估计欧元起码要对美元贬值50%以上，南欧国家才能恢复竞争力）。另一方面，如果欧元解体，德国法国的银行系统可能随之崩溃，而且德国依赖出口的经济也将一蹶不振。
　　看来，还是英国这个老牌欧洲帝国有眼光，几十年来坚守“光荣孤立”，就是不加入欧元，从而成为“英法德三国演义”中的最后胜利者。
　　日期：2012-06-19 13:51:48
　　索罗斯对欧洲债务危机的判断，部分印证了我的想法。他也认为欧元必然最终解体，而且他认为事实上德国等已经在为欧元解体做准备。他认为LTRO实质上就是用来做这个准备的：LTRO支持各国银行购买各国自己的国债，这样最终可以把德国法国等债权国的银行在欧猪国家的风险敞口转移到德国央行及法国央行。如果这一转移成功的话，那么将来欧元解体后，德国与法国的金融体系就不会受到冲击。http://www.georgesoros.com/interviews-speeches/entry/remarks_at_the_festival_of_economics_trento_italy/

　　But as the crisis progressed the financial system has been progressively reordered along national lines. This trend has gathered momentum in recent months. The Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) undertaken by the European Central Bank enabled Spanish and Italian banks to engage in a very profitable and low risk arbitrage by buying the bonds of their own countries. And other investors have been actively divesting themselves of the sovereign debt of the periphery countries.

　　If this continued for a few more years a break-up of the euro would become possible without a meltdown – the omelet could be unscrambled – but it would leave the central banks of the creditor countries with large claims against the central banks of the debtor countries which would be difficult to collect. This is due to an arcane problem in the euro clearing system called Target2. In contrast to the clearing system of the Federal Reserve, which is settled annually, Target2 accumulates the imbalances. This did not create a problem as long as the interbank system was functioning because the banks settled the imbalances themselves through the interbank market. But the interbank market has not functioned properly since 2007 and the banks relied increasingly on the Target system. And since the summer of 2011 there has been increasing capital flight from the weaker countries. So the imbalances grew exponentially. By the end of March this year the Bundesbank had claims of some 660 billion euros against the central banks of the periphery countries.

　　日期：2012-06-19 13:59:20
　　看来德法等国还算明智，已经在暗中为欧元解体做准备了。剩下的问题就是正式解体什么时候发生了。
　　末日博士Roubini预测解体在今年发生。摩根斯坦利预测可能在1年半之内。
　　日期：2012-06-19 14:14:33
　　高盛已经布局，静候欧元区崩溃。高盛总裁声称：“高盛能够从欧洲解体中获利”
　　Cohn said he was optimistic that his firm`s trading desk could turn a profit if Europe`s woes turn worse. He said Goldman is already starting to pick up clients from its now weaker European rivals. What`s more, Cohn says Goldman could benefit from the fact that Europe`s banks may be forced to sell off at least a trillion in assets due to their financial distress. "Our trading desk can make money in any environment," said Cohn. "We are uniquely positioned to intermediate these [the European bank`s] asset sales and distribute these investment opportunities to our clients."

　　这不由得让人联想起2008年的雷曼事件。当一切尘埃落定之后，人们惊奇的发现高盛与摩根斯坦利等投行不仅没受伤，反而赚的盆满钵满。
　　日期：2012-06-19 15:45:44
　　看来德国人早已在扎扎实实的为欧债危机爆发做准备。自2007年开始到2011年德国的银行已经将PIIGS的风险敞口从9000亿欧降到了4000多亿，估计不久将会降到2000亿欧元左右。
　　这样的话即使欧元解体或者有国家违约，德国的银行可能不会受到太大损失。
　　但是，德国银行的很大一部分资产是转移到了德国央行的。据估计，德国央行拥有的欧元区边缘国家的债券最终将达1万亿欧元。如果欧元解体，德国央行还是面临如何收回1万亿欧元的巨额债务的问题。

　　德国如何保障其在边缘国家债权的安全？如果欧元真的解体，德国人会不会考虑重新武装来确保PIIGS还债？美国人会允许德国重新武装吗？乱世啊乱世。
　　日期：2012-06-20 11:34:04
　　hm117朋友把中国经济问题归结于出口导向，这也是错误的。出口导向恰恰是中国经济过去30年高速发展的原动力。出口占中国GDP的比例一直很高（印象当中30%左右吧，具体数字没去查）。没有出口，就没有工业化，也没有FDI。没有出口创汇，就不能从国际市场获得资源、技术。
　　其实出口除了2008年次贷危机期间受到冲击外，一直在保持增长。中国的问题不是出口太多，而是这种世界工厂的地位将来无法继续维持下去。原因我在开篇也讲过：国进民退的结果造成两级分化与生活成本急剧上升，成本优势丧失就会减弱中国制造的竞争力。
　　日期：2012-06-20 12:00:44

　　hml117朋友把通胀归因于外汇占款的增加，其实也是一个常见的思维误区。